By the time Selection Sunday arrives, there will have been plenty of movement in the projected field of 68 for the 2026 NCAA tournament regarding the teams that are in, as well as those looking to get in.

While our Tuesday and Friday Bracketology updates allow us to look at the race to March Madness holistically twice a week, results every day matter and can affect teams — whether they’re playing or not.

Men’s Bracketologist Joe Lunardi is tracking every relevant game every night — and why shouldn’t you?

Here, we provide an inside look at the headlines and upcoming matchups that inform Joey Brackets’ calculations on any given night, as he projects the teams that could have their names called on Selection Sunday (March 15).

A couple of housekeeping things: This page will update every day around lunchtime, between Monday and Saturday — with a few exceptions. Games are listed in order of importance to bracket movement. A team’s projection on that day is listed in parentheses if not otherwise noted.

Scores available here. All times Eastern

Projected field of 68 |
NCAA tournament details | Bubble Watch

Friday-Saturday, Feb. 6-7

HEADLINES

• The top could get tighter: None of the No. 1 seeds can be replaced this weekend, but after UConn’s loss on Friday (at St. John’s), an Illinois win on Saturday (at Michigan State) would close the gap considerably.

• UNC’s chance to climb: North Carolina has the best chance to join the top seeds this weekend because it has the top opportunity — facing its Tobacco Road rival Duke.

• “Big” on the bids: Right now, 10 of the 16 top seeds come from either the Big 12 or the Big Ten (including 8 of the top 12 teams).

• Bubble watching: If you don’t like where your team sits, just wait until Sunday. There are likely to be many changes by category.

• Before the big game: The Saturday before the Super Bowl is always the most heavily scheduled day of the season. There will be 155 Division I games

GAMES THAT COULD AFFECT THE BRACKET

• (6) St. John’s 81, (1) UConn 72. The Johnnie’s upset win at MSG on Friday gives them more of a chance to move up than for the Huskies to drop.

• (1) Duke at (5) North Carolina. UNC can improve its seed and inject life into the ACC race. Duke would not move. Saturday, 6:30 p.m., ESPN

• (2) Illinois at (4) Michigan State. An Illinois win makes the chase for the 1-seeds a five-team race. 8 p.m., FOX

• (2) Houston at (5) BYU. BYU can rectify its loss at Oklahoma State and move back up with a win. 10:30 p.m., ESPN

• (3) Florida at (8) Texas A&M. The Gators are a big road win away from legitimate NCAA title contention. 8:30 p.m., SEC Network

• Ole Miss at (Last Four In) Texas. Another must-win for the Longhorns in their roller-coaster campaign. 2 p.m., ESPN

• (6) Clemson at (First One Out) Cal. Cal almost certainly moves into the field with a win in Berkeley. 8 p.m., ACC Network

• (11) Santa Clara at Washington State. The Broncos would remain the WCC’s automatic qualifier with a win in this tricky road test. 6 p.m., ESPN+